Blackrobotics

The point isn’t that Blackrock picked robots over humans.  The point comes later. 

If you missed the news, last week the Wall Street Journal’s Sarah Krouse reported that Blackrock will revamp its $275 billion business for selecting individual stocks, turning over most decisions to machines (ejecting scores of human managers).

For perspective, that’s about 5% of Blackrock’s $5.1 trillion in assets. The other 95% is quantitative already, relying on models that group stocks around characteristics ranging from market capitalization to volatility.

Spanning 330 Blackrock iShares Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are 14 primary clusters of characteristics that define investments. What Blackrock calls its “core” set are 25 ETFs managing $317 billion, more than the entirety of its active stock-picking business. Core investment describes what Blackrock sees as essentials for a diversified portfolio.

Blackrock views investing as a mixture of ingredients, a recipe of stocks.  The world’s largest asset manager thinks it’s better at crafting recipes than picking this or that flavor, like Fidelity has done for decades. 

But who is most affected by the rise of Blackrobotics?  We come to the point.  Two major market constituencies are either marginalized or reshaped: Public companies and sellside stock researchers.

“Sellside” means it’s the part of the market selling securities rather than buying them. Blackrock is on the buyside – investors who put money into stocks. The sellside has always helped investors by keeping stocks on hand like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley used to do, and processing stock trades.

The sellside since brokers first fashioned the New York Stock Exchange also armed investors with valuable information through stock analysis. Analysts were once the big stars wielding power via savvy perspectives on businesses and industries. Everybody wanted to be Henry Blodget talking up internet stocks on CNBC.

Following the implosion of the dot-com boom of the 90s, regulators blamed stock analysts and enforced a ban on the use of valuable research preferentially, a mainstay for brokers back two centuries. So the sellside shifted to investing in technology rather than people, and the use of trading algorithms exploded.

Brokers – Raymond James to Credit Suisse, Stifel to JP Morgan – have long had a symbiotic relationship with public companies. Brokers underwrite stock offerings, placing them with their clients, the big investors.  After initial public offerings, analysts track the evolution of these businesses by writing research and issuing stock ratings. 

That’s Wall Street.  It reflects the best symbiosis of creative energy and capital the world has ever seen. Analysts issue ratings on stocks, and companies craft earnings calls and press releases every quarter, and money buys this combination. The energy of it hisses through the pipes and plumbing of the stock market. 

Blackrock uses none of it. It’s not tuning to calls or consuming bank research. Neither does Vanguard. Or State Street. Together these firms command some $11.5 trillion of assets eschewing the orthodoxy of Wall Street.

Public companies spend hundreds of millions annually on a vast array of efforts aimed at informing stock analysts and the investors who follow what they say and write. Earnings calls and webcasts, websites for investors, news via wire services, continuous travel to visit investors and analysts.

It’s the heart of what we call investor relations.

What Blackrobotics – Blackrock’s machines – mean to public companies is that some effort and spending are misaligned with the form and function of the market. It’s time to adapt. The job changed the moment Vanguard launched the first index fund in 1975.  You just didn’t know it until now. 

How do I change it, you ask? You can’t. Public companies should expend effort proportionate with the behavior of money. The trillions not tuning to calls or reading brokerage research deserve attention but not a message.

If money is using a recipe, track the ingredients and how they affect valuation, and report on it regularly to management. Get ahead of it before management asks.

It’s neither hard nor scary. What made index investing a great idea, to paraphrase Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, was that it was difficult for investors to be disappointed in it.  Same applies to IR and passive investing. What makes data analysis alluring is that it’s a management function and it’s hard to be disappointed in it.

(Note: If you want help, ask us. We use machines to measure machines and it’s simple and powerful and puts IR in charge of a market run by them. I talked about it yesterday at the NIRI Capital Area chapter).  

I’m not sure how capital forms in this environment. Wall Street lacks plumbing. Thus, companies grow privately and become index investments via IPOs, exiting as giants that are instantly part of the thousand biggest in which all the money concentrates.  

It’s not the end of the world, this rise of the machines.  But Blackrobotics come at a cost.  We all must adapt. It’s far less stressful embracing the future than missing the past.