Tagged: commodities

Virtuous

The humans are the minority.

A three-month study of internet traffic by web-security firm Incapsula found that 61.5% of page views were generated by machines. Humans managed only 38.5% of web traffic.

It seems absurd but our own experience bears it out. We receive hundreds of comments on the blog version of these overwrought homilies but the machines are more opinionated than the humans. In recent months, automated “bots” have attempted to post over 1,500 comments. We’ve approved just the handful from actual humans.

Most of you readers with comments use a dark pool. By which I mean you reply to the email version when you opine on our assertions. In this fashion, you avoid displaying your comments where others can game them. Keep those nondisplayed orders coming!

The machines are good. You could at times almost buy that a person penned the prose. Speaking of skilled machines, Virtu Financial Inc., a dominant high-speed market-maker, intends to go public. Virtu filed confidentially, meaning it posted its regulatory filing quietly in December using a provision of the 2012 JOBS Act to omit the meat investors use to weigh business merits and prospects. (more…)

Infinite Money Theorem

“What do you see out there?”

Out here in Crested Butte, CO, where the overnight temperature was 35 degrees, we see vast beauty, perhaps unparalleled on the planet.

As for the other “out there,” it’s the No. 1 question we’ve gotten the past two weeks, even with clients reporting financial results. They’re most concerned with the macro view: What do we think will happen to the stock market if and when the Fed stops buying government-backed securities?

Some observers predict doom. If the Fed quits printing money, the helium goes out of the balloon and down it comes. Others see the opposite. Just yesterday Jim Paulsen at Wells Capital said the Fed’s exit means markets can normalize, shifting from arbitraging data to investing in economic growth. He says stocks will rise.

It’s important to understand what the Federal Reserve is doing. The Fed isn’t printing money per se. It’s in effect engaging in a massive derivatives swap – trading one thing for another, neither of which is a hard asset. The Fed buys about $85 billion of Treasury securities and government-backed mortgage derivatives every month. Since these instruments are backed by US taxpayers and derive from either future tax receipts or underlying mortgages, both are derivatives. (more…)

Maybe we should leave more often. Out just one week, and both silver and Osama Bin Laden’s house go on the auction block.

Sunday night after flying back from Antigua by way of Newark, I reviewed a week’s worth of client stock alerts for perspective. Stepping through a side exit and closing the door on life’s cacophony for a week, time stops. The return, the jolt of the madding crowd, is revealing. It’s amazing what you see.

More in a moment, but I promised some of you I’d share what we saw beyond the Truman Show. Apparently you can’t get from Denver to the French West Indies in a day on one airline, (more…)