Tagged: NBBO

Mean Reversion

If our stock reverts to the mean, I don’t see that high-frequency trading matters.

I’m paraphrasing what many CEOs and CFOs believe. The market is complicated. There’s volatility. Trading is global. ETFs and derivatives probably affect volume. But I’m trading at a reasonable multiple of forward earnings, so who cares?

I hear that question sometimes. More often, reporters tell me they hear it from CEOs and CFOs. What difference does it make that 60% of my volume is the same shares trading over and over? So we had 7,800 public companies in the Wilshire 5000 in 1997 and now there are 3,600 in it. My stock trades at 16 times earnings. That’s about right.

So long as my house goes up in value, what do I care that people are getting these really ridiculous variable-rate, no-money-down mortgages for 125% of the home’s value, which means they’re financing the furniture over 30 years? What difference does it make to me? My house is still up 15% in value.

According to the ETF Industry Association, at July 2012 there were 1,486 exchange-traded products (ETPs), up from zero about 15 years ago, give or take, and fast approaching one ETP for every two stocks. The industry had net July inflows of $17.1 billion, mostly to equity ETFs. (more…)

Did You Carry the One?

Suppose the chairperson of the national central bank strode from the organization’s Gothic façade on Maiden Lane and said, “Job growth is likely temporary, and folks are going to have to borrow money and buy stuff just to keep the economy running like a used Yugo.”

How would you expect stocks to react? Exactly. They would soar, as they did Monday March 26.

Speaking of bizarro-world, if you missed the BATS Exchange IPO drama Friday, you must have been on a monastic sojourn in the hinterlands. It showed several things. You can run a great business. You can raise money from investors. You can be quality folks who are nice to boot, as our friends at BATS are.

But if somebody forgets to carry the one in that mathematical equation for the opening auction, the incredible shrinkage occurring in the dollar can immediately translate to your shares, speeded up to nanoseconds.

Humor aside, we were asked by various members of the media (and quoted by the WSJ Saturday for the lead article on page one) and many clients about BATS. Should you worry about trading markets because the IPO for a technology-driven stock exchange failed?

Not for that reason. BATS will be fine. They will be back, and soon. Mark it.

But something should concern you. We’ll come to it in a moment. (more…)

We’re late this week due to celebrations around the anniversary of the rebellion from the Crown. We played croquet, appropriately and cheekily British we thought (no offense to our good friends and former overlords across the pond). Croquet has actual rules we learned.

Sunday, Karen and I loaded the bikes and set out with good friend Jeffrey to conquer the passage between two of Colorado’s tall “fourteeners” named Princeton and Harvard. We rode from the Arkansas Valley floor at 8,000 feet up Cottonwood Pass (which sounds like “cotton whupass”) from Buena Vista to the summit at 12,126 feet and a stunning view of the fruited plain.

Choosing a route from point A to point B had me thinking about stock trades (you do this long enough, that’ll happen to you too). Stock trades must have routes. Sometimes it happens automatically. Whether orders for shares in your stock meet their matches internally at Barclays or by dint of timing, routing, pricing and chance at Susquehanna’s dark pool, RiverCross, often is a matter of routing. Even online brokers afford ways to route trades now. (more…)

There Are Spreads and There Are Spreads

Why do many stock prices move intraday by 3-5% or more when price spreads are in pennies?

Before we answer, we enjoyed New Orleans last week, despite humidity that had us struggling to distinguish the surrounding atmosphere from Lake Pontchartrain.

The NIRI Southwest Regional Conference concluded with brisk canvassing of key issues, wrapping on “would you choose an IR career again?” (Unanimous yes from panelists)

Bourbon Street hopped as usual, tourists with beer in cups labeled “giant donkey,” in so many words. We heard from the bartender at Pierre Maspero’s that (more…)

What We Should Do With Dark Pools

A word on the markets: options expired last week, while swaps and counterparty agreements pegged to volatility measures lapse tomorrow. Speculation and risk management trading are high as a result. If you expect your stock to behave as though everybody buying and selling it acts on fundamentals, you’ll encounter the unexpected.

The NYSE and Charles Schumer were talking today about rules for dark pools. The NYSE is partnered with dark-pool operator Liquidnet and is building a massive high-speed trading facility in New Jersey. The Nasdaq meanwhile plans to launch an exchange next year that will give priority to orders of size, to compete with the size advantage dark-pool operators offer.

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