Tagged: VIX futures

The Epic Divide

Thrilling. Arduous. Rewarding. Draining. Spectacular.

No, not the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting concluding today with a soliloquy before public microphones from the chairman.

We mean our grand cycling adventure riding the Rockies on the high backbone of the fruited plain last week. After 1,500 training miles we clocked several hundred more and about 25,000 vertical feet climbing a collection of the globe’s great mountain passes. The desire accomplished is sweet to the soul (one of my favorite sayings because it reflects the human spirit). Here are Independence Pass, the rim of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison, atop Ute Pass northwest of Silverthorne, and aspens outside Aspen.

Speaking of epic, NIRI this year again reminded me about the divide between how markets work now and – take no offense, it’s just a refrain from IR pros – what most of us know about them.

Here’s a current example. Why were prices and markets swinging wildly Tuesday, with disparity between major measures and extreme moves in stocks? Rational investment? Most of us intuitively know investors aren’t responsible.

What is? Fluctuating currencies, yes (hour-by-hour now). But did you know that VIX futures expire today? Last Thursday and Friday, other options and futures expired, and S&P indexes rebalanced.

Behaviorally, expirations are seismic (we study trading behaviors at a mathematical level) because trading is global, 24-hour, and multi-asset-class. When an instrument like a futures contract expires, there’s a ripple effect. (more…)

Predictable Outcomes

It was 85 degrees Sunday in Denver when Karen and I rode up local landmark Lookout Mountain on bikes to pay respects at Buffalo Bill’s grave. We woke to snow Tuesday.

Speaking of hot and cold, we told clients to expect a good start Monday for the new quarter, followed by the strong likelihood of a big move Tuesday or Wednesday as imbalances from the quarter exited broker-dealers. The Dow was down more than 100 points intraday Tuesday.

Why are these outcomes predictable?

In answer, ever heard of Mexican film maker Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and writer Guillermo Arriaga? The duo sadly parted ways after making Babel (Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett), the third film following Amores Perros (Benicio del Toro) and 21 Grams (Naomi Watts, Sean Penn) with disparate threads woven into haunting themes on life and meaning.

Markets have recently given us disparate threads that can be loomed into predictive thematic raiment. Rumblings continue about the dramatic BATS Exchange IPO debacle March 23. The market-structure bugs at Zero Hedge advanced a theory that a deliberate algorithmic tactic torpedoed the IPO. (more…)

Clouds and Wind Without Rain

We’re in glorious Cincinnati where the land is rushing headlong into spring. Even a photo snapped in haste northward at night from Covington at the John Roebling Bridge seems cast in ethereal light.

Speaking of rushing headlong, if you’re here in the heartland, join us at the noon NIRI Tri-State chapter meeting today. We’ll talk about what’s got markets hasting.

There’s a saying from the bible: “Like clouds and wind without rain is a man who boasts of a gift he does not give.”

It made me think of volume. Enough of you have written asking about what may underlie declines in market volume that it deserves a community answer. We hope ours will do.

In 1980, Wilshire Associates was tracking about 3,500 publicly traded companies in its index that would become the Wilshire 5000, the category-leading total-market index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed that year at 963. Average daily trading volume was 45 million shares on the NYSE.

By 1990, the Wilshire 5000 had over 5,000 companies as IPOs outpaced consolidation. Average daily volume across the NYSE, Nasdaq and American Stock Exchange was 302 million shares, and the Dow Jones Index closed at 2,633.

In 2000, total companies had slipped from the 1998 zenith of 7,460. But daily volume had mushroomed to 2.8 billion shares. The Dow concluded Y2K at 10,786.

Volume built to helium-laughter level of about 7 billion shares daily in 2009. But in 2012 so far, markets are averaging 3.6 billion shares daily. The Dow is up. But the number of public companies is down. Way down. Care to guess how many make up the Wilshire 5000 in 2012? (more…)

A Rational View of Share Prices

Belated Happy Thanksgiving!

After breaking for a week as an act of giving thanks, we’re back. Karen and I joined 88,622 others in Aggieland at Kyle Field in College Station for the A&M football game last Thursday versus the Texas Longhorns. Disappointing outcome, great Thanksgiving.

There’s something special about Texas. People passing you on the street say hi and the kids say yes ma’am and yes sir. There’s a lot of what Kenny Chesney calls “the good stuff.” What may be the world’s greatest college bar, the Dixie Chicken, sits on the main College Station drag like an Old West saloon. Batwing doors, even.

Speaking of swinging doors, gyrations in markets make it awfully hard to use your stock price to measure investor sentiment (wasn’t that the idea behind exchanges?). In fact, there’s inherent contradiction between the way markets behave now and how the IR profession cultivates holders.

IR folks typically seek buy-and-hold money that does not trade. Yet executives frequently ask about the stock price. The news rushing at us round the clock tries to explain market behavior in rational terms. Yet stock prices are set by the latest fleeting bid or offer. Nine of ten times, those prices are not rational. (more…)

IR Pros Must Know Macro Factors

We were sitting on the porch in the shadow of the American flag Sunday September 11 when fighter jets streaked and thundered so low that all of Denver shook. We caught glimpses of pairs of F-15s and F-16s, afterburners hot. Later, we read that warplanes from Denver escorted two flights with suspicious passengers aboard. But the ten-year memorial passed in peace.

Speaking of thunderous roar, I attended the jam-packed NIRI Rocky Mountain Chapter’s kickoff session today. Nasdaq chief economist Frank Hatheway offered a thoughtful and statistical look at the market. He joked that when he first prepared slides two weeks ago, the trends were improving but he’d had to change his comments to reflect reality.

Dr. Hatheway launched his talk by comparing stock indices with VIX volatility, Treasury yields, oil prices and gold. He observed that investor-relations professionals today need to develop a level of understanding of these “macro factors” – benchmarks of group behavior across asset classes (clients, we include a Macro Factors segment on page two of your Market Structure Report). (more…)