The Market Structure Map
February 14, 2018
The market’s Valentine’s Day gift is VIX expirations today. It might be no more than a flirtatious glance toward investors but there’s reason for wariness. It kicks off the February series of expirations for derivatives today through Friday, with then a market holiday next Monday,...
February 7, 2018
One definition of “volatile” is “passing off readily in the form of vapor.” Through yesterday, XIV, the exchange-traded security representing a one-day swap from Credit Suisse and offered by VelocityShares, had seen 94% of its value vaporized. It triggered a technical provision in the fund’s...
January 31, 2018
We interrupt the white-hot arc of the stock market for this public-service announcement: Watch the dollar. While any number of factors might be selected as reason for the DJIA’s 360-point drop yesterday, one macro factor correlates well: The relative buying power of the US...
January 24, 2018
Arbitrage Mechanism would be a great name for a rock band. Of course, when bands are named for market terms – Call Option, Factor Model, Shiller PE – the bull market may be ending (let me know if your kid’s garage band is called Flash...
January 17, 2018
Here in CO we can count on sun much of the time but we still watch the weather forecast. It would be a real pain to drag the skis out and drive up the mountain only to find the resorts bereft of snow. For one,...
January 10, 2018
It’s the number one question. Tack “how long” on the front. I’m asked all the time: “Tim, do you think the stock market is sustainable? Are fundamentals driving it or is this a bubble? Stock buybacks? The Fed is behind it, right? Isn’t bitcoin proof...