What is “Rational Price™”?

ModernIR developed this proprietary mathematical measure to depict the price where rational, or fundamental, investors will step in to buy to a degree where their order flow is setting the price of a company’s stock. With few exceptions, executed trades must meet at the national best bid or offer in U.S. equity markets. Executions must match standard deviation on “best execution,” or measures of trading efficiency. In addition, rules allow investors to recoup some trading costs through soft-dollar and commission-recapture programs. With math, rational behavior can be distinguished from other behaviors.

Fundamental investors are the types typically targeted for outreach in an investor relations program, but in modern capital markets these investors make up a small percentage of total shares traded (they don’t constantly come and go). Accordingly, their order flow sets a company’s stock price rarely in a capital market with so many competing forces, many of which are driven primarily by speed. What’s important to note is that even small footprints of rational activity can change a company’s market structure and price as the other market participants notice and react to this order flow. Bottom line, outreach matters more than ever today, but it must be well-targeted to count.