Tagged: Cliff Asness

The Risk

On a hot Sunday 138 years ago today, Lieutenant Colonel George Armstrong Custer rode into the valley Native Americans called the Greasy Grass. The rest is history.

Speaking of unexpected defeat, wonder what ambush caused yesterday’s sharp market reversal? Here’s a ModernIR Rule: The day after a new marketwide series of options and futures begins trading is a leading indicator of institutional asset-allocation plans.

Options and futures expired June 18-20. The new series took effect June 23. Yesterday was Rule Day.  Counterparties including major broker-dealers hold inventory through expirations and these resets. If stocks then decline, they had too much inventory for demand-levels.

Now, one can blame bearish Dubai stocks or sudden weakness in the UK Sterling or something else. But this rule is consistently true: If there’s more money in equities, stocks rise because counterparties undershot estimates. The reverse? Counterparties dump inventory and stocks drop.

Is this dip the tip of the long-anticipated bear turn?  Right now, total sentiment by our measures doesn’t show that risk. But. Sentiment has consistently faded before offering investors a market-top for profit-taking, in itself a bearish signal.

Speaking of risk, Cliff Asness’s high-speed trading piece at Bloomberg is humorous and compelling. I admire the AQR founder for his smarts, success and libertarian leanings.

But I disagree on HFT.  Mr. Asness defends it, saying: “The current competitive market-based solution is delivering the product, meaning liquidity for investors, better and cheaper than ever. Moving away from this competitive landscape would be an invitation for incompetent central planning or rapacious monopolistic practices.” (more…)