The Market Structure Map
December 17, 2025
The market isn’t really the market. Yesterday, I told Diane King Hall on Schwab Network that futures are no crystal ball. Cracked myself up with that. I meant signals from futures contracts for benchmarks like the S&P 500 often are wrong. Why is that?...
December 10, 2025
I don’t know if it’s better to be the Wildebeest or the Hyena. But there’s safety in the herd. That’s one conclusion from my NIRI Senior Roundtable panel last Thursday with Simplify Asset Management chief strategist Mike Green (who is now also the economics rockstar...
November 12, 2025
Why do Analyst Days foster volatility? For those unacquainted with Wall Street jargon, an “Analyst Day” is an event hosted by a public company to engage research analysts from the sellside, the firms selling stocks, and the buyside, shops buying stocks. AMD held one yesterday....
November 5, 2025
“The business continues to hit on all cylinders,” said Uber’s CEO yesterday. The stock declined. Palantir beat expectations, raised guidance, what we call in the industry a “beat and raise.” The stock fell about 8%. Demand, our 10-point sentiment algorithm metering buying and selling, peaked...
October 22, 2025
If you beat across the board, why does your stock fall? For those unaccustomed to earnings season jargon, I’m referring to exceeding the expectations of Wall Street analysts for revenue and earnings and other metrics. The kicker is raising guidance – telling investors you’ll do...
October 8, 2025
Public companies shouldn’t report financial results during index-options expirations because the numbers are large. The law of large numbers says that as the number of random events increases, the probability that the outcome moves toward the mean increases. Is that manifesting in the stock market?...