The Market Structure Map
November 5, 2025
“The business continues to hit on all cylinders,” said Uber’s CEO yesterday. The stock declined. Palantir beat expectations, raised guidance, what we call in the industry a “beat and raise.” The stock fell about 8%. Demand, our 10-point sentiment algorithm metering buying and selling, peaked...
October 22, 2025
If you beat across the board, why does your stock fall? For those unaccustomed to earnings season jargon, I’m referring to exceeding the expectations of Wall Street analysts for revenue and earnings and other metrics. The kicker is raising guidance – telling investors you’ll do...
October 8, 2025
Public companies shouldn’t report financial results during index-options expirations because the numbers are large. The law of large numbers says that as the number of random events increases, the probability that the outcome moves toward the mean increases. Is that manifesting in the stock market?...
September 24, 2025
At 9:45am eastern time September 20, the Nasdaq declared Self-Help against the Nasdaq BX. September 20 was a Saturday. Relax. It was a test. We saw a bunch last week. If you want to know about the Nasdaq BX, well, another time. It’s the old...
August 27, 2025
Willie Nelson said the air was full of melodies. You reach out and pluck one. I don’t have that gift. My mind though is always reaching for ideas hanging like Palisade peaches in August. Let me give you this week’s before we leave for French...
August 20, 2025
I was the odd man out. I joined over a hundred investor-relations colleagues in Dallas last week for the NIRI Southwest Regional Conference (great work, chapter team led by Brook Wooton!). I was the only person talking about the trend in our addressable market. More...