The Market Structure Map
November 5, 2025
“The business continues to hit on all cylinders,” said Uber’s CEO yesterday. The stock declined. Palantir beat expectations, raised guidance, what we call in the industry a “beat and raise.” The stock fell about 8%. Demand, our 10-point sentiment algorithm metering buying and selling, peaked...
October 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets today to agree to cut rates. Well, that’s the expectation. It’s with inflation at 3% and if ADP is to be believed (I think payroll data are superior to a government survey, but what do I know), jobs...
October 22, 2025
If you beat across the board, why does your stock fall? For those unaccustomed to earnings season jargon, I’m referring to exceeding the expectations of Wall Street analysts for revenue and earnings and other metrics. The kicker is raising guidance – telling investors you’ll do...
October 15, 2025
The Ides of October is not as famous as the Ides of March. For those of you not into the ides, it’s the 15th of the month (save for shorter Roman months where the Ides was the 13th). The Ides of April is well known...
October 8, 2025
Public companies shouldn’t report financial results during index-options expirations because the numbers are large. The law of large numbers says that as the number of random events increases, the probability that the outcome moves toward the mean increases. Is that manifesting in the stock market?...
October 1, 2025
He was born on a Friday so his name is Karma. Karma Sherpa, our driver from Soho (South of Houston in New York) to the refreshed Laguardia airport last Friday, coincidentally, is a member of the famous Everest-guiding Nepalese. The Sherpa tribe is just a...