The Market Structure Map
November 18, 2020
The most valuable thing is knowing what’s going on. The country is closing amid Covid cases. Simultaneously, the Shiller PE ratio of earnings in the S&P 500 is 33, a level exceeded in history only at the bursting of the Internet Bubble in 2000. What’s...
November 11, 2020
If electoral processes lack the drama to satisfy you, check the stock market. Intraday volatility has been averaging 4%. The pandemic has so desensitized us to gyrations that what once was appalling (volatility over 2%) is now a Sunday T-shirt. Who cares? Public companies, your...
November 4, 2020
On Nov 4, 2020, words commonly associated with a 12-step program come to mind. Protestant theologian Reinhold Niebuhr, who received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1964, sometime in the 1930s during the Great Depression is said to have coined the words we today call...
October 28, 2020
The data are more placid than the people. When next we write, elections will be over. We may still be waiting for the data but we’ll have had an election. Good data is everything. Story for another time. The story now is how’s money behaving...
October 21, 2020
We rode the Colorado National Monument this week with our good friends from Sun Valley. There’s a lesson in it about life and stocks both. We would’ve been riding bikes in Puglia with them now, if not for this pandemic. Oh, and part of the...
October 14, 2020
There’s one left. This week brings the last pre-election monthly options-expirations cycle. It’s the final time to take or manage risk with options that expire after votes are cast. It might be instructive about trading bets. Options expire Thu-Fri this week, and through Oct 21....